New Delhi: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a “major food crisis” in the coming months as geopolitical conflicts, fertiliser shortages, disrupted grain shipments and climate-related pressures converge to threaten global food security.
Speaking during a conversation hosted by the Asia Society, Jaishankar said the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Iran-Gulf tensions have had a “devastating impact” on economies across the Global South. He described the situation as “very very stressful”, citing simultaneous pressure on energy supplies, food production and access to finance.
Jaishankar said disruptions in global energy markets were being driven both by physical threats to supply chains and political factors. He cautioned that political manoeuvring around oil supplies could further increase fuel prices at a time when markets need greater stability.
The minister also raised concerns over disruptions to agricultural inputs and international grain trade. He said some major grain exporters could face difficulties in shipping supplies, particularly through the Black Sea, potentially affecting countries dependent on global food markets.
Fertiliser availability is another major concern, according to Jaishankar. He pointed to the concentration of important fertiliser producers in West Asia and Russia and said geopolitical disruptions were affecting production and supply. Higher fertiliser costs or shortages could subsequently affect agricultural output and food prices in importing countries.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, Jaishankar referred to climate-related disruptions, including the possibility of a “super El Nino”, which could compound pressure on agricultural production.
He said the combination of energy shortages, food and fertiliser constraints and financial pressures could create severe difficulties for developing economies. During periods of geopolitical instability, he noted, capital tends to move towards perceived safe havens and away from emerging and developing markets, further restricting their financial space.
Jaishankar also cautioned that economic shocks arising from energy and food disruptions could have wider political consequences. Referring to developments in India’s neighbourhood following the Ukraine conflict, he said instability could worsen if the effects of the Iran-Gulf tensions spread further.
Calling for greater consideration of the consequences of major geopolitical decisions, Jaishankar said powerful countries should not overlook the impact of their actions on vulnerable economies.
He added that countries would respond differently depending on their economic resilience and degree of strategic autonomy, with some making adjustments while others could resist external pressures.
The minister’s remarks come amid concerns over the interconnected risks facing global food, energy and financial systems as geopolitical tensions and climate pressures continue to disrupt international supply chains.
