Patna: In a surprising turn of events on Friday morning, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, predicted by exit polls to flop in its electoral debut, secured initial leads in two constituencies as counting began for the 2025 Bihar Assembly election. The party, contesting 238 out of the state’s 243 seats, appeared to outperform expectations within the first hour of counting, injecting an unexpected twist into an election widely believed to favour the ruling NDA alliance.
By 9:16 am, early trends showed the BJP-JDU-led coalition comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 seats. Within the next half hour, the alliance surged past 150 seats, strengthening projections of a sweeping victory. The ruling camp includes the Bharatiya Janata Party, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), and smaller but significant allies such as Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).
The opposition Mahagathbandhan, anchored by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with the Congress as a junior partner, attempted to counter the wave with a strong grassroots push. Initial numbers confirmed the RJD putting up a spirited fight in several pockets, even as the Congress emerged as the alliance’s weakest link, mirroring the predictions made by several exit polls.
Interestingly, while most surveys had written off Jan Suraaj, some even giving it zero seats, one exit poll by Peoples Pulse hinted that the party might capture up to 10 per cent of the vote share, higher than the Congress. NDTV’s poll of exit polls suggested it might win only one seat. Yet political analysts agree that even a modest performance from Jan Suraaj could crucially influence outcomes in several close contests, largely by eating into the opposition’s vote base.
Prashant Kishor’s personal track record has also contributed to the heightened attention around his political debut. Known for crafting major victories in the past, including Nitish Kumar’s 2015 Bihar sweep, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s 2019 triumph in Andhra Pradesh, and Mamata Banerjee’s emphatic win in 2021, Kishor has often been regarded as an “X factor” in electoral politics.
Despite the scepticism of survey agencies, Kishor remained unfazed before counting day, stating that his party would either “perform exceedingly well or crash” with no middle ground.
As Bihar’s two-phase election, held on November 6 and 11, moves toward final results, all eyes remain on whether Jan Suraaj’s early leads signal a symbolic breakthrough or merely a fleeting moment in a high-stakes contest.
