New Delhi: India has modestly expanded its nuclear arsenal and appears to have begun deploying a limited number of nuclear warheads during peacetime, marking a significant development in its strategic posture, according to the latest report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The annual assessment of global nuclear forces highlights a changing security environment in the Indo-Pacific, where nuclear-armed states are increasingly modernising their arsenals, enhancing delivery systems, and integrating warheads with operational launch platforms. SIPRI estimates that India’s total nuclear stockpile rose from approximately 180 warheads in January 2025 to around 190 warheads by January 2026.
A notable finding of the report is SIPRI’s assessment that India may have started deploying a small number of nuclear warheads on a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) conducting occasional deterrence patrols. Traditionally, India has been believed to store its nuclear warheads separately from delivery systems during peacetime, in line with a posture aimed at ensuring strategic restraint and preventing accidental escalation.
However, SIPRI notes that recent developments, including the deployment of missiles in canisters and the expansion of sea-based deterrence operations, suggest a gradual shift in India’s approach. The institute estimates that India currently has around 12 deployed nuclear warheads, while the remainder of its arsenal remains in reserve or storage.
The report places India’s nuclear modernisation efforts within the broader context of growing regional competition. According to SIPRI, New Delhi is increasingly focused on developing long-range missile systems capable of reaching targets across China. Nevertheless, India’s nuclear planning continues to be shaped significantly by its longstanding security rivalry with neighbouring Pakistan.
Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile, meanwhile, is estimated to have remained stable at approximately 170 warheads as of January 2026. While the country’s land-based and air-delivered nuclear capabilities are considered well established, SIPRI notes that Pakistan continues to work on developing its sea-based nuclear deterrent. The report states that Islamabad’s maritime nuclear capabilities remain in the testing and developmental stages as it seeks to build a complete nuclear triad.
Beyond South Asia, SIPRI highlights a broader trend of nuclear expansion and modernisation among major powers. China is reported to have increased its nuclear arsenal from around 600 warheads to approximately 620 over the past year. The institute also suggests that China may be moving away from its longstanding practice of keeping warheads separate from missiles during peacetime, with some mobile missile units reportedly deploying mated warheads during military exercises.
Globally, SIPRI estimates that nine nuclear-armed states, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel, collectively possessed approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons at the beginning of 2026. Of these, around 9,745 were held in military stockpiles and considered potentially operational.
The report warns that ongoing nuclear modernisation programmes could increase risks of escalation and strategic instability. It specifically identifies the growing overlap between conventional and nuclear-capable missile systems, known as nuclear-conventional entanglement, and the spread of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) as key concerns for global security.
