Washington, D.C.: Global oil prices surged to their highest level in a month on Tuesday as renewed military confrontation between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over energy supplies passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation, which has continued for three consecutive days, has disrupted commercial shipping and reignited fears of a broader energy crisis, sending Brent crude close to the $86-per-barrel mark.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, climbed as much as 3.8 percent during trading, extending a sharp 9.6 percent rally recorded the previous day. By 08:00 GMT, Brent futures for September delivery were trading at $85.92 per barrel, the highest level since June 15.
The latest spike marks a dramatic reversal from the optimism seen just weeks ago, when oil prices had retreated following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Washington and Tehran aimed at easing tensions. Despite that temporary relief, Brent crude has now risen approximately 19 percent from its pre-war levels before the US-Israel military campaign against Iran began in late February.
The renewed volatility comes after the US Central Command announced that it had carried out strikes on Iranian targets for a third straight day. According to the US military, the attacks were intended to weaken Iran’s ability to target civilian populations and commercial vessels operating in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime energy corridors.
Iran responded by intensifying its own military operations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for striking two oil supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz while also launching missile and drone attacks against US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain. Tehran described the attacks as retaliation for continued American military action.
Further adding to market uncertainty, US President Donald Trump announced that his administration would reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and introduce transit fees for ships using the Strait of Hormuz, describing the United States as the “guardian” of the crucial shipping route. The proposal has raised fresh concerns among shipping companies and energy traders about increased transportation costs and potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
Energy market analysts warned that the latest developments have significantly weakened the cushion that had previously protected oil markets from severe price shocks.
June Goh, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities in Singapore, said the market could witness a sharp upward repricing unless tensions between Washington and Tehran begin to ease. She noted that the United States has already drawn heavily on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset earlier supply disruptions, reducing the available buffer against future shocks.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has also fallen sharply as commercial operators grow increasingly cautious about the deteriorating security environment.
According to ship-tracking platform MarineTraffic, only 57 vessel transits were recorded between Friday and Sunday, representing a decline of more than 50 percent compared to the previous week. Before hostilities escalated earlier this year, roughly 130 ships were passing through the waterway every day.
Rory Johnston, founder of oil market research firm Commodity Context, said maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to levels even lower than those seen immediately before last month’s peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
Johnston observed that the oil market had remained surprisingly resilient throughout much of the conflict because countries and companies were able to rely on existing stockpiles to offset supply disruptions. However, he warned that those reserves have now been significantly depleted, leaving global markets more vulnerable if the conflict intensifies further or shipping disruptions continue.
Despite Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed “until further notice,” the United States has sought to reassure international markets that energy shipments are continuing with military protection.
The US Department of Energy stated that approximately 8.5 million barrels of oil successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on the previous day under military escort, describing the flow as consistent with recent averages. The department maintained that US forces would continue safeguarding commercial shipping to ensure uninterrupted energy supplies regardless of Iranian threats.
Nevertheless, analysts believe risks remain elevated.
Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, said crude oil prices could climb substantially higher if the market begins to anticipate genuine physical shortages. He suggested that Brent crude reaching the $100-per-barrel mark is a realistic possibility should disruptions to oil supplies become more pronounced.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints, carrying a significant share of global crude oil exports every day. Any prolonged disruption to shipping through the narrow waterway has the potential to affect fuel prices, inflation and economic growth across major importing nations, including India, China, Japan and several European countries.
