Mumbai: A report attributed to the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) has sparked widespread debate by projecting a significant demographic change in Mumbai over the coming decades. According to the study, if current trends continue, the Muslim population in India’s financial capital could reach nearly 30% by the year 2051, marking a substantial shift in the city’s population composition.
The report points out that Mumbai’s Muslim population has steadily increased over time. Census data cited in the study indicates that Muslims constituted around 8% of the city’s population in 1961, a figure that rose to approximately 21% by 2011. TISS researchers suggest that migration patterns, higher urban concentration, and socio-economic factors have played a role in this growth.
A key aspect highlighted in the report is the presence of migrants from neighboring countries such as Bangladesh and Myanmar, including Rohingya communities. The study claims that the number of such migrants in Mumbai has increased in recent years and that this trend has implications for the city’s demography, labour markets, housing, and public services. It also alleges that a portion of earnings by some migrants is regularly remitted to their home countries.
An earlier interim TISS study released in November 2024 had similarly warned that unchecked illegal migration could have long-term socio-economic consequences for Mumbai. The report also raised concerns about the politicisation of migrant communities, alleging that some political groups may exploit them for electoral gains.
The findings have reignited discussions on urban planning, migration management, and social cohesion in megacities like Mumbai. Experts emphasize the need for data-driven policy responses that balance humanitarian considerations with legal frameworks and sustainable urban development, while avoiding communal polarisation.
