Putin’s December Visit to India: Defence Deals, Oil Diplomacy and Strategic Autonomy on the Table

New Delhi: Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India from December 4–5 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit, marking his first trip to New Delhi since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The visit comes at a critical geopolitical moment, as both nations navigate the pressures of shifting global alignments and economic compulsions.

Putin’s visit follows an invitation extended earlier this year by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), the two leaders will “review progress in bilateral relations, set the vision for strengthening the ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’, and exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest.”

A major point of tension during the summit is expected to be India’s increasing vulnerability to US pressure, especially under Donald Trump’s punitive 50% export tariffs. These tariff threats have made Indian policymakers consider reducing imports of discounted Russian crude, an idea that Moscow reportedly views with displeasure.

Analysts from the Lowy Institute noted that Moscow is concerned New Delhi may gradually shift towards a prospective US LPG import deal, especially if pricing becomes comparable. Russia has consistently nudged India to continue its energy partnership, stressing that the arrangement is mutually beneficial. In October, Putin said at the Valdai Forum in Sochi that “[Indians] will never allow themselves to be humiliated by anyone,” signalling both admiration and subtle frustration.

Defence cooperation, long the core of the India-Russia relationship, is expected to dominate the agenda. With rising geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain vulnerabilities, India is looking to secure its access to affordable Russian military hardware, spare parts and joint production offers.

The S-400 air defence system, which proved crucial during Operation Sindoor and the subsequent 88-hour conflict with Pakistan, remains a key pillar of this cooperation. However, Russia has yet to deliver the final two of the five squadrons ordered in 2018 due to wartime production constraints. Despite this delay, India is reportedly considering adding more S-400 units to its long-term procurement list.

Another major draw is Russia’s offer to manufacture Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighters in India, a proposal that aligns with the government’s ‘Make in India’ goals and strengthens technological collaboration.

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